Casino Edge
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  3. 25-33-40-50 (poker)

25-33-40-50 (poker)

Also: bluff mnemonic, alpha

Poker term

The fold rate a bluff needs to break even when the bet is ⅓, ½, ⅔ or pot.

The formula is alpha = bet ÷ (bet + pot). Betting 5 into 10 needs 5 ÷ 15 = 33%. If they fold once in 3, you break even. Bluff opponents who fold more than that; don't bluff those who don't. Soft live opponents are almost all players who don't fold.

Related terms

  • Alpha (poker)How often the opponent must fold for a bluff to break even.
  • Bluff (poker)A bet meant to make better hands fold.
  • MDF (poker)The line beyond which folding lets the opponent's bluffs profit.
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